Positive outcomes from a brutal invasion?
“What good has come from the situation?” – this might seem like an odd question to ask. However, despite the horrors, the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine that began on February 24, 2022 has led, I believe, to five positive outcomes, both globally and locally.
The World now knows who Russia really is
The first is that the world, particularly the West, now knows exactly who Russia is, namely a colonialist and territorially aggressive kleptocracy with nuclear weapons and delusions of past imperial grandeur. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the West was so glad that the Cold War had (ostensibly) ended that it gave Russia the benefit of the doubt as to how it might develop. “Now,” we thought, “Russia will evolve into the democracy that it would always have been if the Bolsheviks had not managed to seize power in 1917.” As it turned out, this could not have been more wrong.
The West at one point thought that it could work with Putin and there was even the bizarre situation wherein Russia spoke of joining NATO(!) but this, of course, did not go anywhere because NATO’s very raison d’être was as a bulwark against Russia. There have been numerous European leaders, France’s Nikolas Sarkozy and Germany’s Angela Merkel among them, who have tried to work with Russia (and who still argue that the West should), but we can have no more illusions about who Russia and Vladimir Putin truly are and what they contribute to the well-being and security of the world. Most Ukrainians, of course, have known exactly who Russia is for centuries, but it took until the full-scale invasion for the world to see the situation the same way.
The world now knows who Ukraine is
The second positive outcome is that much of the world now knows exactly who Ukraine is. Prior to February 24, 2022, only a small percentage of people indeed who would have recognized the blue-over-yellow Ukrainian flag and would have understood that Ukraine is not Russia. Many still buy Russia’s claim that this war is somehow internal to Russia but those who see it this way are far fewer than would have been the case two years ago. More of the world now knows that Ukraine has its own language, its own flag, its own government, its own territory – recognized as such after the fall of the Soviet Union – and certainly its own very capable armed forces.
Those who choose to look past the formidable Russian propaganda machine (or who have an economic or strategic interest in working with Russia) now see Ukraine as the easternmost arrowhead of democracy on the European continent and an aspiring member of the West, which includes membership in both NATO and the European Union (the actual ascension to which will not be easy in either case). Whether the West chooses to keep this arrowhead sharp is another question, of course.
Moreover – and these might seem like small things from a public perception perspective but they most assuredly are not – the majority of the world now correctly calls it Ukraine (rather than the offensive Russian/Soviet “the Ukraine” – i.e., “the colonies” or “the territories”) and transliterates its capital as the Ukrainian “Kyiv” rather than the Russian “Kiev”. These changes in how the world sees Ukraine have been a long time coming, to say the least.
Ukraine and Ukrainians now more united than ever
Ukrainian unity
The third positive outcome is that Ukraine itself is more united, and thereby more certain of its own identity than ever (note that the link is to an article from late 2021, i.e., mere weeks before the full-scale invasion – needless to say, the crux of the article is even truer now). For a variety of historical reasons that are beyond the scope of this essay, Eastern Ukraine had always felt more of an affinity toward Russia than western Ukraine ever did, which made Ukraine sometimes difficult to govern in the post-Soviet era.
The vast majority of people in eastern Ukraine speak Russian as a first language and many have relatives across the border in Russia, so this affinity would come as no surprise. However, this began to change significantly after the 2014 Russian incursion into the easternmost provinces of Ukraine and the Crimean peninsula and, of course, ever more so in the wake of the 2022 full-scale invasion. People in eastern Ukraine started seeing what Russia really had in mind relative to Ukraine and their collective gaze started shifting yet more westward as a result.
Membership in NATO and the European Union
It is interesting to note how support for Ukraine’s membership in NATO has changed over the 21st century. Prior to 2014, support for joining NATO was consistently under 20%, while opposition to joining was consistently between 57% and 70% – NATO was fundamentally distrusted and even considered a security threat by many. Then, between 2014 and 2019, this changed entirely, with a plurality of respondents (and sometimes an outright majority) consistently favouring Ukraine’s membership in NATO. Then finally, by August 2021, when Russia’s intentions toward Ukraine were abundantly clear, support for membership in NATO eventually climbed to well over 80%, with opposition to doing so in the single digits.
Ukraine’s feelings toward membership in the European Union have also become very positive over the last number of years, with surveys showing anywhere from 80% to over 90% support for such a move (it was at only 66% in one poll in 2015). It is evident that, despite some regional differences, Ukraine as a whole now sees its future as a united country, both Ukrainian and Russian speaking, in alignment with Europe and the West rather than with Russia. Russia choosing to bomb, pillage, and destroy as much of eastern Ukraine as it has, and clearly trying to erase Ukrainian national identity, undoubtedly helped a lot of people there make up their minds in that regard.
Common cause
Internationally
The fourth positive outcome from the Russian invasion of Ukraine is that it has brought much of the world together in common cause. There is naturally no such thing as international unanimity, as every country interprets what its own best interests are and, for some, this means maintaining good relations with Russia or, at the very least, not taking a public stand against what Russia is doing. Much of the world has not only condemned Russia’s designs on Ukraine but considers concrete ways to provide Ukraine with various types of assistance.
In New Brunswick
However, it is at the local level where a different type of support has occurred and brought people together. New Brunswick has been amazing in this regard, whether it be at the macro level, with the Government of New Brunswick chartering a plane to bring Ukrainians here in June 2022 and matching government job openings with newcomers who have those specific skillsets, or at the micro level, with the Dieppe Centre des Arts providing their venue at no cost for fundraising concerts, and churches with no Ukrainians whatsoever in their midst holding prayers for Ukraine (such as the church here in my community of Pointe-Sapin).
Then there is the Miramichi Supports Ukraine group who, starting with nothing at the outset of the invasion, has helped settle almost 150 Ukrainians in the Miramichi area, including assistance with finding work, accommodations, and even furniture. There are many more such examples throughout the province, including the very well-organized and capable Ukrainian Club of Moncton. On a personal level, the people of my own adopted Acadian community showed up at our door mere days after the February 2022 invasion with a fruit basket and as much moral support as they could give, which meant so much to me and my family. North or south, French or English, New Brunswick was, and continues to be there, for Ukrainians, affirming why I personally ever wanted to make my home here in the first place.
Local communities benefit from the influx of Ukrainians
The final positive outcome worth mentioning is that so many of the Ukrainians who have fled their homeland bring skills and work ethic to their new communities. Most newcomers are young families, which is exactly the type of population influx that New Brunswick has needed. New Brunswick’s population has absolutely boomed since 2019 and the Ukrainian influx has been part of that. No question that there are growing pains with the 7%+ population increase over that time, but this is a better problem to have than an aging, declining population with no prospect of development or growth.
There is no Ukrainian anywhere who would have wished for Russia’s invasion to happen but, like any occurrence, the invasion’s outcomes are complex, nuanced, and even positive in some cases. The world, including New Brunswick, has changed as a result of Russia’s brutal action and it now knows exactly who Russia and Ukraine are. We must play the hand we have been dealt, internationally, nationally, and locally, but do so with our eyes wide open to the different world that has been thrust upon us.
This article first appeared in the Telegraph Journal in January 2024 (subscriber only)
I wish I was I could see positives. The news that Canadian support is declining is really scary and disheartening. Something like 43% of Conservatives think Canada is doing too much and 1 in 5 of Canadians think it’s a waste of money to support Ukraine. There is hardly any news coverage anymore. The positives you outlined will not matter much if Ukraine is not victorious.
I couldn’t agree more, Tracy. I suppose things would still be OK for most (not all) who choose to stay, but your point is very well taken.
You are so inspiring, I always learn from you ❤️
I do so appreciate that, Lana.