Introduction
It has been 21 months since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This is the first of five articles on the invasion, focussing primarily on the current situation in what Vladimir Putin called a “special military operation”, the name suggesting his belief that the military incursion and subsequent attempt to occupy Ukraine and install a Russia-friendly government would be quick and easy. It has been anything but – it is a brutal war, rife with Russian war crimes and disastrous consequences for both Ukraine and much of the rest of the world, both directly and indirectly.
For many people, the war is understandably less top-of-mind than it was within the first few months after the invasion. There are fewer churches holding special “Prayers for Ukraine” services, there is no “War in Ukraine” banner link at the top of many news sites anymore, and there are fewer Ukrainian flags flying in various places where they had been flying since last year. Again, this is no surprise, since those who are not directly affected by the war have moved on to other concerns, of which there are many. However, the war continues apace.
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine: to be analyzed
This series will analyze the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in four subsequent parts:
Ukraine's 2023 counter-offensive
There is a sense among many that Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive, which has been proceeding for some weeks now in one way or another, has not been successful enough quickly enough, especially relative to Ukraine’s success in quickly retaking the Kharkiv region and part of the Kherson region last year. However, this is foolish, as Russia has occupied the almost 20% of Ukraine that it controls for some time. It has therefore had many months to set up defensive positions, using mines, anti-tank trenches, and other stout impediments that make every 10 metres of territory that Ukraine re-gains a gruelling slog.
Make no mistake that every 10 metres regained is indeed a success for Ukraine, but not in a way that makes for screaming daily headlines or for placation among those in the West who think that their contributions to the war effort in the fight against the full-scale invasion should be yielding more results more quickly (leave aside for a moment the fact that, had the West supplied Ukraine with more of the right kind of weapons right at the outset, it may have already achieved the desired battlefield success). Patience is the key here, with part of Putin’s strategy being his hope that the West runs out of it sooner rather than later.
Constant Russian missile strikes
At the same time, Ukrainians are busy fending off daily Russian missile barrages all over the country (not just in the areas that the two countries are contesting via land war) and burying the civilians targeted in these criminal encounters. At last, Ukraine is starting to send drones and other domestically produced (i.e., not Western-supplied, as per agreement) aerial weaponry into Russian territory to send the message to Russia’s largely duped populace that this “special military operation” is actually a full-scale invasion, which has more dire internal consequences than what the state-run media has told them to this point.
It is laughable when Russia whines that it is experiencing “terrorist attacks” from the “Kyiv regime” while doing the very same thing to Ukraine simultaneously, many times over. As Diane Francis says in her July 24 blog post entitled, “The Prigozhin Parable”, Russia wants Ukraine and the West to play by a certain set of rules while it plays by another”. For those of us who have studied the history of Eastern Europe, thus it ever was with Russians.
The Kakhovka Dam
And these barrages do not even include one of the most hideous of Russian war crimes within the context of this full-scale invasion, namely blowing up the Kakhovka Dam (likely from inside the structure itself), which the media far and wide has quickly forgotten (until recently), has resulted in massive amounts of land being flooded, the loss of a huge reservoir that was integral to both the safe operation of the Zaporizhia Nuclear Plant and the provision of water to the reservoir’s surrounding residents, and the Black Sea littoral being contaminated with all manner of detritus, including live mines. The list of consequences from this breach goes on well beyond those listed. Russia has never, of course, accepted responsibility, but their fingerprints are all over this criminal environmental catastrophe.
Russia's weaponization of food
Russia has also weaponized food. With the assistance of Türkiye, it had acquiesced in a series of agreements to allow ships loaded with Ukrainian commercial food and fertilizer to continue delivering their stocks internationally, as had been the case prior to the invasion. However, Russia publicly declared that it did not like the terms of these deals relative to its own exports via the Black Sea (what it really did not like is that Ukraine benefitted from these deals in any way) and therefore cancelled its participation in them, saying it would consider any ships leaving Ukrainian ports as potential military targets.
It has since concentrated some of its missile strikes on Odesa (and its environs), an ancient port city on Ukraine’s southwest Black Sea coast, as well as elsewhere, so that Ukrainian ships cannot easily deliver these food and fertilizer stocks to the countries that desperately need them, particularly in Africa. It is bewildering how many African countries still see Russia as some sort of anti-colonial “good guy” both in this situation and on the world stage in general (more on this in a subsequent column), considering that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is the exact reason why there are food shortages in many places on that continent and elsewhere.
A world that is less safe
Overall, the world is far less safe than it was before February 24, 2022, although that does oversimplify the complexity of ante bellum international relations, particularly relative to China and the Middle East (click here to read about Putin’s abject hypocrisy on that topic). Most countries in the world have had to choose sides between Ukraine and Russia, some very directly and some less so, all of which has resulted in a much more polarized international geopolitical landscape. We should not forget that the aggressor in this war is a nuclear power and that other countries have shaped their responses to the Russian invasion at least partly with this in mind. We should note, though, that Russia has not seriously rattled the nuclear sabre for some months now, leading to speculation that China may have had something to say about this matter. Still, the weapons and the threat exist.
At this point, Ukrainians heroically and adroitly continue to defend their homeland and their homes, while Russians continue to assert their claims to the almost 20% of sovereign Ukrainian territory they currently occupy (while of course wanting it all). The rest of the world tries its best to figure out what to do next and how quickly.
Next: The full-scale invasion of Ukraine: What has Russia accomplished?
See also the following:
Putin’s abject hypocrisy: Putin’s “concern” for the innocents in Gaza
My 1986 review of Soviet but not Russian, by William Mandel, as published in Eastern European Quarterly, Volume XX, Number 4 (Winter, 1986) and my 1986 MA thesis entitled Democracy, federalism and nationality: Ukraine’s medieval heritage on the thought of N. I. Kostomarov, in which I discuss aspects of the Russian appropriation of Ukraine’s medieval history and Ukraine’s effort to reclaim it.
You can also view an interview I did not long after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began.
This is really interesting. Thanks Jerry. Struck, by your comment that “it is bewildering how many African countries still see Russia as some sort of anti-colonial “good guy” both in this situation and on the world stage in general.” Although I have not followed the progression of the war in detail, I have noticed with similar alarm/bewilderment that as the situation has “normalized” some have actually found Russia’s position defensible. I can’t get my head wrapped around that.
Needless to say, I couldn’t agree more. Thanks for leaving a comment!