I asked one of my contacts in Ukraine how he/she sees this so-called “ceasefire” discussion between Putin and Trump
The translation is mine, as is the post-opinion analysis about the so-called “ceasefire.”
Putin will not make any concessions
I think little about the ceasefire itself because, one way or another, any war must end with a ceasefire. I worry more about how exactly two of the so-called “Budapest Security Guarantors” will swindle-divide OUR land and on what future conditions our sovereignty will depend.
At the same time, will Putin make any concessions? His appetite was whetted right when he saw that the US wanted to “negotiate” with him while blaming the victim for not surrendering in the first minutes of the attack.
I believe that the whole “comedy” that played out with our President in the Oval Office was done specifically so that Ukraine’s leaders would not get in the way of a “conversation” between the two racketeers (i.e., Putin and Trump). Because, of course, everyone is afraid of offending Trump again. And he thrives on that.
Because if we can’t achieve peace by “begging” Putin, there will at least be someone to blame.
Did the US "negotiate with Bin Laden? Or Saddam Hussein?
As for ceasefire itself, I think that it will allow the “katsaps” (i.e., Russians) to lick their wounds and pull up reserves, especially on the condition that Ukraine is not to be supplied with weapons during that time!
You don’t need to be a master strategist to understand this.
The Muscovite will stop when he feels a blow to the balls. He is out of breath, but he sees that they (i.e., the Americans) are taking his position into account even though the Muscovites are already fighting with crutches and bicycles.
Everything is being done with the objective of our quiet surrender so that the fool (Trump) can put on a “good face”.
I have a question for the American people. Why didn’t they go to negotiate with Bin Laden? Even Saddam Hussein was executed at the hands of America despite there being no proof that he was making nuclear weapons. They just THOUGHT he was guilty.
And here with the asshole who has destroyed entire cities (not merely two skyscrapers), they will negotiate, and on his terms.
To what extent will the US destroy itself while destroying Ukraine?
At some point, Ukraine will most likely be accused of breaking the agreement because, as soon as the Muscovites feel that they can advance, they will sacrifice their soldiers, or the Koreans fighting alongside them, and say that Ukraine did it.
And, Trump, in order not to lose face, will side with the Muscovites.
Here I am 100 PERCENT convinced that Putin has a lot of “kompromat” (compromising material) on Trump. Putin is already blackmailing him and twisting him the way he wants. The hand of the KGB is already being felt.
Even from Trump’s physical condition after negotiations with Putin, it’s clear that Trump looked confused and defeated.
The only question is to what extent will Trump destroy America itself with his actions because a weak America is a comfort for China, too, not just Russia. He has already alienated his neighbours and has done the same with American allies in Europe.
Everyone is already considering about how to live without America, even in terms of whether to purchase weapons or manufacture them themselves. For the great United States of America, it means the loss of large arms markets around the world and this loss means lost jobs, taxes, etc.
We’ll see what happens but I loath the idea that it will undoubtedly be done on our bones and our blood.
My own analysis
Putin’s maximalist aims remain the same as they ever were
My contact’s analysis is bang-on.
Leaving Ukraine and President Zelenskyy aside for the moment, there are two agendas here: Putin’s and Trump’s. Putin’s (and Russia’s) agenda remains the same as ever: 1) to subjugate Ukraine completely and absorb it into Russia, and 2) to erase any vestige of Ukrainian nationality. We must view anything Russia does or doesn’t do in these sham “ceasefire” negotiations through that lens.
Putin wants the world to see that he is “talking,” but he is not negotiating in any sense of the word. He has offered no concessions whatsoever in this kabuki theatre and continues to bomb Ukraine ceaselessly while pretending to espouse the cause of “peace.”
For Putin, “peace” will come only after he and Russia achieve their maximalist aims and Ukraine ceases to exist. Thus it has ever been since 1654.
Why does Trump want to work with Russia?
Russia might not have to work too hard to get what it wants, as Trump appears eager to hand Putin the keys to Kyiv. We will see whether this plays out differently with Europe’s greater involvement but Ukraine’s survival will be despite the US’s role, not because of it.
So the questions arise: is Trump fundamentally unintelligent and/or malignant? Or does Russia (as my contact suggests) perhaps have some “kompromat” on Trump to make him do what they want? Or is something else entirely at play?
The answers are: “partially,” “yes,” “maybe, but there’s no evidence,” and “yes.” We’ll look at these in turn.
“Stable genius?”
It’s almost too easy to poke fun at Trump for the “stable genius” thing of some years ago, so I’ll just let that speak for itself. Trump is very clever in some ways, particularly in how he communicates with his base, but we wouldn’t consider him “intelligent” by any definition.
Some consider him smart simply because he is a businessperson but his record in business doesn’t bear that out.
Everyone knows he barely reads, so he certainly would have little, if any, a priori knowledge of Ukrainian history or Ukrainian-Russian relations over the centuries. So it would be no surprise that he buys into the ubiquitous but myopic Western-fuelled Russian perspective of who and what Ukraine is, namely a region (at best) of Russia.
Is Trump a “bad actor?”
Is Trump malignant, i.e., a bad actor? Here, actions speak louder than words. Cozying up to one of the world’s brutal imperialist dictatorships and voting with the world’s pariahs in the UN tells us much of what we need to know. So do his imperialistic designs on Canada.
His pattern of behaviour tells us exactly who he is and where his sympathies lie, and it’s not on the side of decency and justice, either at home or abroad. That’s becoming clearer every day.
Does Russia have something on Trump? Or does he just really, really like Russia?
Some have speculated that Russia does indeed have some “kompromat” (compromising materials) on Trump. What else could explain how it sometimes seems like Putin’s own voice is coming from Trump’s mouth?
Trump certainly talks and acts exactly like a Russian asset would. Moreover, he has not done a single thing while in office that the Kremlin doesn’t like. He talks tough, saying that he will pressure Russia if it doesn’t agree to the ceasefire terms that Trump “negotiated” with Ukraine, but he hasn’t followed through whatsoever.
Let’s just do the “Occam’s razor” thing here and explain Trump’s position on Russia isn’t because of some complex Russian subterfuge (although it can’t be ruled out completely). The simple explanation is far more likely: it’s because Trump isn’t nearly as smart as he thinks he is, and he is certainly as much a bad actor as he shows himself to be.
No need to look further than that.
Could there be other reasons for Trump’s obsequiousness toward Putin and Russia?
Most definitely.
The most important of such reasons is that Trump sees the world as a competition among “great powers,” with Russia and the US being two of these. He doesn’t see countries like Ukraine and Canada at that level – these are countries that should be content with living under the suzerainty of one of the big players, so he treats them as vassal states.
This is exactly where the talk comes from of Canada becoming the 51st state or of Ukraine being the party that is impeding peace in the war.
Leaving aside Trump’s abject personal disdain for Ukrainian President Zelenskyy (and former Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau), Trump doesn’t see Zelenskyy (or any Canadian PM) as an equal. But he certainly sees Putin in that light, as he does President Xi of China.
Trump and Putin share that “great power” worldview, so Trump’s aggressive pursuit of renewed relations with Russia may well include an effort to drive a wedge between Russia and China as a way of keeping China at bay. Method to the madness? Maybe, but at what cost and at whose expense?
Trump doesn’t give a crap about Ukraine – never did
Bottom line is that Trump doesn’t give a crap about Ukraine but he gives a massive crap about Russia and his relationship with Putin. This is why Trump hasn’t followed through in any way with putting the squeeze on Russia in these so-called “peace negotiations,” including the desired “ceasefire,” as he said he would. Wouldn’t want to upset the Kremlin, you know.
Putin is playing Trump like a fiddle but the “stable genius” Trump is more than a willing instrument because he desperately wants to be in Putin’s orchestra. That’s why Trump says such patently stupid things like, “Russia wants peace.”
Russia doesn’t want peace – it wants Ukraine. Period. And Trump is happy to facilitate that while wanting the world to think he is doing something so that “people stop dying.”
Russia simply couldn’t ask for more.